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Timeline of events related to the 2025 United States trade war with Canada

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The following article is a broad timeline of the course of events surrounding the 2025 United States trade war with Canada and Mexico.

2024

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  • February 21, 2024 A CRS report "U.S.-Canada Trade Relations" said that the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 caused an increase in global market instability and the rising price of energy, which increased the value of imported Canadian oil.[1]: 1  The bilateral trade relations between the United States and Canada is one of the world's largest. Both the energy and automotive markets are highly integrated.[1]: 1  By 2023, there was a US$41 billion trade deficit with Canada with a total trade between the two countries of US$923 billion—with Canada importing US$482 billion of goods and services and the U.S. exporting billion US$441 billion to Canada.[1]
  • October 15, 2024 In an interview with Bloomberg News editor John Micklethwait at the Economic Club of Chicago on October 15, 2024, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump outlined his economic strategy, emphasizing the use of "draconian" tariffs as a key component to fund his proposed tax cuts, which would incentivize companies to invest in manufacturing within the United States.[2][3][4]
  • November 25 In a post on Truth Social, Trump announced that one of his first Executive Orders would impose and maintain a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico citing their alleged inadequate efforts to control their borders.[5][4]
President Trump with Howard Lutnick being sworn in as Commerce Secreta (February 21, 2025)
President Trump with Howard Lutnick being sworn in as Commerce Secreta (February 21, 2025)

January 2025

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  • January 15 Trudeau and First Ministers hold their first meeting to discuss Canada–United States relations.[12]
  • January 20 In a memo President Donald Trump told officials to "assess the unlawful migration and fentanyl flows" from Canada, Mexico and China" and then "recommend appropriate trade and national security measures to resolve that emergency."[4]
  • January 29 Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly met with United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, D.C. in response to the threat of steep United States tariffs that could result in a trade war between the two countries.[13][14] Joly expressed cautious optimism about a diplomatic solution to trade relations.[13][14] Along with presenting details of Canada's initiatives in working with the United States to tackle illegal immigration and fentanyl at the border, she clarified that less than 1% of the fentanyl and less than 1% of illegal immigrants enter the United States through the Canadian border.[15]
  • January 31 Columbia University's economics professor and Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz said that "Virtually all economists think that the impact of the tariffs will be very bad for America and for the world...They will almost surely be inflationary...It's inconceivable that other countries won’t retaliate."[16]

February 2025

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  • February 1 At the beginning of his second non-consecutive term, President Trump signed three executive orders and a Fact Sheet under the authority of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) declaring a national emergency.[17] He announced that Canada and Mexico would be sanctioned with tariffs starting on March 4, citing an "extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs" and their "series of failures" to "address the flow of narcotics into the United States".[18] His E.O "Imposing Duties to Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border" and Fact Sheet said that "Canada has played a central role in these challenges, including by failing to devote sufficient attention and resources or meaningfully coordinate with United States law enforcement partners to effectively stem the tide of illicit drugs."[17][19]
On CPAC, the Canadian parliamentary channel, Trudeau announced retaliatory 25% tariffs valuing CA$155 billion (US$107 billion) on products from the United States.[20][21]
  • February 2 The Royal Bank of Canada's Chief Economists said that the blanket 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and the 10% tariff on energy products represented the country's largest trade shock in nearly 100 years" comparing it to the Smoot–Hawley Tariffs.[22][a]
Media outlets examine the disconnect between the E.O. and the nature of the changing grievances and lists of things that Trump wants.[27][28][29]
  • February 3 Trump announced a 30-day pause on Canadian tariffs.[30]
According to the Associated Press, in the 2024 fiscal year United States Customs agents "seized 43 lb (20 kg) of fentanyl at the Canadian border", "compared with 21,100 lb (9,600 kg) at the Mexican border,"[31] which represents less than one per cent of all fentanyl seized by US border agents imports coming into the United States and into the United States.[32] CBC News reported that in 2024, Canadian border officials confiscated eight million grams of drugs that had been smuggled into Canada compared to five million grams entering the United States via Canada seized by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection.[32]
According to a 2025 CRS backgrounder report on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), since Trump is the first president to use the IEEPA to impose tariffs, open questions remain about the "scale and scope of what tariffs might be authorized under the statute."[18][33]: 26 
A series of "high-stakes" phone calls between Trump and Trudeau and between other officials took place.[34] Trump cited a memo which included a list of grievances with Canada that were unrelated to trade, such as renegotiating the Canada–United States border.[b]
  • February 7–8 According to a Bloomberg News/Harris poll in early February, approximately 60% of Americans believe high tariffs would cause consumer prices to rise.[35][36]
  • February 10 A 25% tariff on aluminum and steel is announced in an Executive Order that cited an update on a 2018 report that said that the significant increase in steel imports from Canada, Mexico and other countries to "once again threaten to impair U.S. national security."[37] Canada is the largest supplier of steel and aluminum to the United States, representing 22% of steel imports and 47% of aluminum imports in 2022.[38][39][c] See also 2002 United States steel tariff.[41] }}
In response to the tariffs on steel and aluminium, Trudeau, who was in Paris at an international conference on artificial intelligence, said that the tariffs were ""entirely unjustified." Canada and the European Union "vowed to retaliate firmly" according to France 24.[42]
  • February 11 Trump reinstated 25% tariff on steel imports and increased tariffs on aluminum imports to 25% on Canada and other countries.[43]
Trudeau announced the appointment of Kevin Brosseau as Canada's new Fentanyl Czar to work with Americans to "disrupt and dismantle this illegal drug trade crossing our border".[44]
  • February 14 Wells Fargo and Company economists warned in their February 14 memo, that "Tariff worries are real" as retail sales slumped.[45][46]
  • February 20 Details of the February 3 phone calls between Trump and Trudeau emerge.[34]
  • February 26 Trump suggest that a one-month reprieve on tariffs is possible with the sanctions on Canada and Mexico to begin on April 2.[47]
  • February 27 The Peterson Institute for International Economics cautioned that the cost of the combined tariffs to the typical American family would be over $1,200 a year, according to a February 27 Bloomberg News article.[46]
The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) announced the launch of Operation Blizzard to respond to fentanyl smuggling.[48] Since early February, CBSA and their partners made significant seizures at the Canada–United States border, including six seizures amounting to 1.98 oz (56 g) of fentanyl brought in by two US citizens.[48] It only takes a few grams of fentanyl to cause death.[48]
A CBC News article listed the efforts Canada made in February alone. Royal Canadian Mounted Police Commissoner and CBSA president met with American officials to present "major successes" in decreasing the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States.[32]
In a reversal of his February 26 suggestions to the Cabinet to give a one-month reprieve to April 4, Trump announced that tariffs will go into effect March 4.[47]

March 2025

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Trump announced that 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada that he had threatened, then delayed from the earlier February 4 date, would enter into force on March 4.[51] Along with the increase of tariffs on China from 10% to 20% set to take place the same day, this caused the U.S. stock market to drop considerably: the S&P 500 index fell by 1.8%, while the Nasdaq-100 index fell by 2.6%.[52][53] By March 6, the S&P 500 had lost almost all of its gains since November 2024.[54]
The Economist described Trump's tariffs as aggressive and erratic, and said that they would "cause lasting damage at home and abroad".[55]
William Reinsch of the Center for Strategic and International Studies contrasted the current trade war with Trump's first in 2018-2019, which economist say will be much more costly.[56]
According to an Associated Press article, if Trump substitutes tariff revenue for income taxes, tariffs would remain in place inspite of demands being met.[56]
KPMG's chief economist Diane Swonk said Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" witrh "multiple countries at the same time" means that the "rest of the world" could retaliate.[56]
Brian Bethune, an economist at Boston College said that Trump’s tariffs could "push up mortgage and loan borrowing rates ... and reduce real growth."[56]
A CBC News article said that, "The notion that the flow of illegal fentanyl across the U.S. border with Canada could somehow justify punitive tariffs on Canadian imports was always flimsy, at best."[58]
Reporting from Brussels on March 4, a POLITICO article cited a European Union executive who said the tariffs put global trade at risk, harms economic partnerships, and incites "unnecessary uncertainty at a time when international cooperation is more crucial than ever."[59] The Chair of the European Parliament international trade committee said that the tariffs were "incomprehensible", "illegal and completely unjustified". He said that there are only losers, no winners in a trade war and that "American companies, workers and consumers will suffer too."[59]
Leading American automobile industry lobbiest told Trump that 25% tariffs announced on March 2, would give the foreign automobile industry an advantage over American carmakers. They told Trump that the price of vehicles could rise as much as 25% and that this could take place "almost immediately".[60]
  • March 5 In a phone call Ford Motors' CEO Jim Farley and Executive Chairman Bill Ford, General Motors' CEO Mary Barra, and Stellantis' Chairman John Elkann asked Trump to give a reprieve on the 25% tariffs on imports related to the automobile industry that are in compliance with the rules under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement signed by Trump in 2020.[61] Increased prices caused by tariffs because of the interconnected automobile industry's supply chain, could also lead to higher automobile insurance.[62]
Signing the USMCA at the G-20 Leaders' Summit in Buenos Aires
Signing the USMCA at the G-20 Leaders' Summit in Buenos Aires
  • March 6 A White House Fact Sheet announced that there would be a 30-day reprieve on tariffs to "minimize disruption to the [American] automotive industry".[63] Potash tariffs were reduced to 10%.[64][63] Details included the maintenance of 25% tariffs on goods ouside United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) rules; a reduction to 10% on Canadian energy products that are not protected under the USMCA; potash tariffs outside USMCA were reduced to 10%; all Canadian and Mexican goods regulated by USMCA will have no tariffs.[63][d] The New York Times said that the abrupt suspensions of tariffs covered most Canadian and Mexican products.[71]
Canadian Finance Minister LeBlanc announced that Canada would postpone its intended second phase of retaliatory measures on C$125 billion worth of American goods, until April 2.[72]
A BBC article described the tariffs and rollbacks as causing "uncertainty for businesses and worried financial markets".[73] The article also repeated economists' warnings that the tariffs would cause "severe economic downturns in Mexico and Canada" and higher prices for American consumers.[73]
Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly in 2022.
Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly in 2022.
In an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly describes changes in trade talks following the February 3 phone calls between Trump and Trudeau.[74]
A Bloomberg News article described the frequent reversals and rollouts, as "baffling" and ineffective.[78]
  • March 9 In his final speech as Prime Minister, Trudeau warned that Canada was facing an existential crisis because of Trump's tariffs.[79]
Mark Carney, Prime minister–designate of Canada
Mark Carney, Prime minister–designate of Canada
On March 9, 2025, Mark Carney was elected leader of the Liberal Party on the first ballot, winning 85.9% of the vote.
During his victory speech, Prime Minister designate and the new leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, Mark Carney, confirmed that he would maintain the retaliatory tariffs announced by Trudeau.[80][81]
Bloomberg News said that while Trump is fulfilling a campaign promise to impose tariffs as his signature economic policy, he is using them to intimidate other countries as leverage in disputes unrelated to trade. In the 21st century global economy this represents a "dramatic shift" as most nation states with larger economies are working towards reducing, not increasing trade barriers.[82]
  • March 10 Trump's suggestion that there was a possibility of a recession in a Fox News interview is cited as causing investor fears and a decline in the S&P 500. Trade tensions are listed as one of the factors contributing to one of the worst single-day market performances since 2022.[83] Since its peak in February, the S&P 500 lost US$4 trillion from the stock market sell-off.[84]
  • March 11 The S&P 500 dropped by 9% since its February 14 peak with the Nasdaq falling by 13%. According to the Economist, Trump's unpredictable trade policies, including tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico caused the sell-off. Europe stocks are having their "strongest run in over 15 years" outperforming the United States.[85][86]
Trump doubles the tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% starting on March 12[87] allegedly in reponse to the province of Ontario's threat of a relaliatory 25% tariff on electricity from Ontario exported to three American states.[87]
Trump doubles the tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% starting on March 12[87] allegedly in response to the province of Ontario's threat of a relaliatory 25% tariff on electricity from Ontario exported to three American states.[87] The tariffs on electricity were suspended.[88][89]
The Canadian government sold US$3.5 billion worth of US Treasuries bonds to American investors.[90]
  • March 12 A separate set of tariffs—25% on Canadian steel and aluminum exported to the United States—go into effect at midnight following "back-and-forth" threats and reversals on March 11.[40] In reponse, Canadian announced that retaliatory tariffs valuing CA$29.8 billion US$20 billion on steel, aluminum, cast iron products and more will come into effect on March 13.[91]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ The Economist, the Royal Bank of Canada, The Financial Post, NPR, and other news outlets also compared the blanket tariffs announced on February 1 to the Smoot–Hawley Tariffs.[23][24][25][26]
  2. ^ Grievances against Canada unrelated to trade were listed in a memo that Trump referred to in the February 3 phone call with Trudeau. This included potential changes to the Canada–United States border as defined in a 1908 agreement between the United States and Great Britain. Trudeau reminded Trump that since the Constitution Act, 1982 Canada is a soverign nation.[34] Trump said without evidence that American banks cannot operate in Canada. According to Canadian Bankers Association as of 2025, there are 16 American banks operating in Canada. [34]
  3. ^ A 2023 United States Congressional Research Service (CRS) report "Import Monitoring Systems: Steel and Aluminum", citing the United States Department of Commerce said that Canada is the largest supplier of steel and aluminum to the United States representing 22% of steel imports and 47% of aluminum imports in 2022.[38] During Trump's first presidency, his administration's 25% tariff on Canadian steel and a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian aluminum remained in place for a year, ending in 2019.[40]
  4. ^ The United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) went into effect on July 1, 2020,[65] updated the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement.[66] The negotiations and signing of USMCA during his first term as president was considered to be a victory for Trump as it fulfilled a key campaign promise.[67] In 2020, Trump said that, "The USMCA is the largest, most significant, modern, and balanced trade agreement in history. All of our countries will benefit greatly."[68] The Office of the United States Trade Representative's official Fact Sheet said that USMCA "will support mutually beneficial trade leading to freer markets, fairer trade, and robust economic growth in North America."[69] The region covered by USMCA is one of the world's largest free trade zones.[70]

Citations

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c Kitamura 2024.
  2. ^ Micklethwait 2024.
  3. ^ Rappeport, Alan; Swanson, Ana (October 15, 2024). "Trump Brags About His Math Skills and Economic Plans. Experts Say Both Are Shaky". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 8, 2025.
  4. ^ a b c Zahn 2025.
  5. ^ "As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before. Right now a Caravan coming from Mexico, composed of thousands of people, seems to be unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border. On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!". Truth Social. November 25, 2024. Retrieved March 8, 2025.
  6. ^ Djuric 2024.
  7. ^ a b Murphy 2024.
  8. ^ Truth Social 2024a.
  9. ^ Ray 2024.
  10. ^ Department of Finance 2024.
  11. ^ Thanthong-Knight & Hertzberg 2024.
  12. ^ "First Ministers' statement on the Canada-United States relationship". Prime Minister of Canada. January 15, 2025. Retrieved March 10, 2025.
  13. ^ a b U.S.Embassy 2025.
  14. ^ a b Boynton 2025.
  15. ^ Global News 2025.
  16. ^ Greenhouse, Steven (January 31, 2025). "Why Trump tariffs will be 'very bad for America and for the world'". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved March 8, 2025.
  17. ^ a b The White House 2025.
  18. ^ a b Casey 2025.
  19. ^ Fact Sheet 2025.
  20. ^ Trudeau 2025.
  21. ^ Murray & Bekiempis 2025.
  22. ^ Frances & Leach 2025.
  23. ^ Zahn 2024.
  24. ^ Louis 2025.
  25. ^ Duster 2025.
  26. ^ Economist 2025.
  27. ^ Kanno-Youngs, Zolan; Stevis-Gridneff, Matina (February 4, 2025). "What Does Trump Really Want From Canada and Mexico?". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 8, 2025.
  28. ^ Panetta, Alexander (February 1, 2025). "This isn't just a trade spat. North America changed today". CBC News. Retrieved March 8, 2025.
  29. ^ Inskeep, Steve (February 3, 2025). "Trump's words show why he's imposing tariffs. And it's not a goal he campaigned on". NPR.
  30. ^ The White House 2025a.
  31. ^ "Tariff threats take aim at fentanyl trafficking. Here's how the drug reaches the US". AP News. February 3, 2025. Retrieved March 6, 2025. Fentanyl is also made in Canada and smuggled into the U.S., but to a much lesser extent. U.S. customs agents seized 43 pounds (19.5 kilograms) of fentanyl at the Canadian border during the last fiscal year, compared with 21,100 pounds (9,570 kilograms) at the Mexican border.
  32. ^ a b c Tasker 2025.
  33. ^ Casey & Elsea 2024.
  34. ^ a b c d Rubin 2025.
  35. ^ Kamarck, Elaine; Galston, William A. (March 5, 2025). "Trump's speech highlights culture wars amid growing concerns on inflation". Brookings. Retrieved March 8, 2025.
  36. ^ María Paula Mijares Torres (March 2, 2025). "Two new polls say Americans want Trump to focus on this one thing". Bloomberg News. Retrieved March 8, 2025 – via The Seattle Times.
  37. ^ White House 2025c.
  38. ^ a b Watson 2023.
  39. ^ Swanson, Ana (February 10, 2025). "Trump Imposes 25% Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum From Foreign Countries". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  40. ^ a b Hudes 2025a.
  41. ^ McCormick 2025.
  42. ^ France 24 2025.
  43. ^ The White House 2025b.
  44. ^ Government of Canada 2025.
  45. ^ "Rocky start to the year for Retail Sales". FXStreet. February 14, 2025. Retrieved March 8, 2025.
  46. ^ a b Donnan, Shawn; Ballentine, Claire (February 27, 2025). "Trump Risks American Consumer Backlash Over Tariffs, Poll Shows". Bloomberg News. Retrieved March 8, 2025 – via Financial Post.
  47. ^ a b Montanaro, Domenico (March 7, 2025). "The short history of Trump's tariff chaos — and more that happened this week". NPR. Retrieved March 9, 2025.
  48. ^ a b c CBSA 2025.
  49. ^ The White House 2025d.
  50. ^ Palmer 2025.
  51. ^ Lipsky, Josh (March 4, 2025). "Wall Street is finally waking up to Trump's tariff policy". Atlantic Council. Retrieved March 9, 2025.
  52. ^ Towfighi, John (March 3, 2025). "Dow tumbles 650 points as Trump confirms tariffs on Mexico and Canada will start Tuesday". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2025.
  53. ^ Rennison, Joe; Kaye, Danielle (March 3, 2025). "Stocks Post Biggest Loss of the Year on Trump's Tariff Plans". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 3, 2025.
  54. ^ "Donald Trump's economic delusions are already hurting America". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved March 6, 2025.
  55. ^ "Donald Trump's economic delusions are already hurting America". The Economist. March 6, 2025. ISSN 0013-0613. Archived from the original on March 6, 2025. Retrieved March 6, 2025.
  56. ^ a b c d Wiseman, Paul; Rugaber, Christopher (March 3, 2025). "Trump's tariff tactics carry higher economic risks than during his first term". AP News. Retrieved March 8, 2025.
  57. ^ "Canada announces robust tariff package in response to unjustified U.S. tariffs" (news releases). Department of Finance Canada. March 4, 2025. Retrieved March 9, 2025.
  58. ^ Wherry, Aaron (March 4, 2025). "Trump wants to go back to 1913. Canadians and Americans will suffer the consequences". CBC News. Retrieved March 8, 2025.
  59. ^ a b Gus, Camille (March 4, 2025). "EU slams US tariffs on Canada, Mexico as threat to global trade". POLITICO. Brussels. Retrieved March 7, 2025.
  60. ^ Liptak 2025.
  61. ^ Shepardson 2025.
  62. ^ Pettypiece 2025.
  63. ^ a b c Fact Sheet 2025a.
  64. ^ The White House 2025e.
  65. ^ ERS n.d.
  66. ^ USMCA 2019.
  67. ^ Neuman 2020.
  68. ^ White House 2020.
  69. ^ USTR Fact Sheet n.d.
  70. ^ GAC 2025.
  71. ^ Swanson, Ana; Rappeport, Alan (March 6, 2025). "The vast majority of products from Mexico and Canada will be exempt from the tariffs". The New York Times. Retrieved March 6, 2025.
  72. ^ LeBlanc 2025.
  73. ^ a b Sherman, Natalie (March 6, 2025). "Trump tariffs: US expands exemptions to Canada and Mexico tariffs". Retrieved March 7, 2025.
  74. ^ a b Amanpour 2025.
  75. ^ Raj 2025.
  76. ^ Stevis-Gridneff 2025.
  77. ^ Stewart 2025.
  78. ^ Dlouhy, Jennifer A. (March 7, 2025). "Trump's On-Again, Off-Again Tariff Strategy Sows Confusion". Bloomberg News. Retrieved March 8, 2025.
  79. ^ Trudeau 2025a.
  80. ^ Carney 2025.
  81. ^ Aitken 2025.
  82. ^ Flatley & Murray 2025.
  83. ^ Pager 2025.
  84. ^ Krauskopf & Ahmed 2025.
  85. ^ Economist 2025a.
  86. ^ Yahoo Finance 2025.
  87. ^ a b c d 'Absolute chaos created by one person': Ford pushes back after Trump's tariff threat. CNN. March 11, 2025. Event occurs at 26:31. Retrieved March 11, 2025.
  88. ^ Carter, Adam; Powers, Lucas (March 11, 2025). "Ontario suspending 25% surcharge on provincially generated electricity purchased by U.S. states". CBC News. Retrieved March 11, 2025.
  89. ^ "Trump Reconsiders Tariff Hike After Ontario Halts Energy Charge". Bloomberg.com. March 11, 2025. Retrieved March 11, 2025.
  90. ^ Bloomberg News 2025.
  91. ^ Renshaw & Shakil 2025.

Canadian official agencies

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The White House

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Congressional Research Service reports

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Other

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References

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G Mélanie Joly (January 29, 2025). Canada’s message to US is "resonating" after meeting with Rubio, Joly says. Global News. Retrieved March 12, 2025. H

K Krauskopf, Lewis; Ahmed, Saqib Iqbal (March 10, 2025). "US stock market loses $4 trillion in value as Trump plows ahead on tariffs". Reuters. Retrieved March 11, 2025.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: ref duplicates default (link) L

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