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2024 United States Senate election in Michigan

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See also: 2024 United States Senate elections

2024 United States Senate election in Michigan
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Elissa Slotkin Mike Rogers
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,712,686 2,693,680
Percentage 48.64% 48.30%
Slotkin:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Rogers:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Elissa Slotkin
Democratic

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a Class I member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, and elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as various state and local elections. Democratic U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin narrowly defeated Republican former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers in her bid to succeed Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow, who declined to seek a fifth term.[1][2] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump carried Michigan on the same ballot, making Michigan one of only four states to split their tickets for president and Senate.

Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.[3] Slotkin won the Democratic nomination with 76% of the vote over actor Hill Harper and Rogers won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former congressman Justin Amash and physician Sherry O'Donnell. The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain control of the Senate.[4] This was the first open race for this seat since 1994. This was the first time Michigan voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Don Riegle was reelected as Republican George H.W. Bush carried the state in 1988.

On November 6, 2024, major news organizations projected that Elissa Slotkin had won the election.[5][6][7] Slotkin received about 25,000 fewer votes than Kamala Harris, while Rogers received about 120,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump.

Background

[edit]

A swing state, Michigan is considered to be a purple to slightly blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Michigan by 2.8 percentage points at the 2020 presidential election. However, Democrats had seen much more success in recent years in the state. At the time of the election, Democrats controlled both U.S. Senate seats, seven of 13 of the U.S. House congressional delegation, the minimum majority in both houses of the Michigan Legislature, and all statewide offices.[8]

This race was considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean and that there was no incumbent; however, most polls and ratings had Slotkin as the slight favorite to win.[9][10] In-fighting among Michigan Republicans after the 2022 elections left the state party poor in funding for the U.S. Senate race[11] and defaulting on a bank loan.[12][13] The MIGOP also failed to meet campaign finance reporting deadlines.[14]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Elissa Slotkin led the field in fundraising with nearly $16 million raised as of April 2024.[15][16][17] Nearly $6 million of this had been raised before August 2023.[18] She continued to dominate fundraising in the second quarter of 2024 outpacing her Republican opponent by as much as three-to-one with 95% of her contributions coming from donors giving $100 or less according to the campaign.[19][20]

Slotkin released the first TV ad of the primary campaign on May 28 which focused on her work in national security in the George W. Bush and Obama administrations.[21]

Campaign contribution allegations

[edit]

In November 2023, Hill Harper claimed that he had been offered $20 million in campaign contributions from former Motown Motion Picture Studios owner Linden Nelson if he would drop out of the Senate race to mount a primary challenge against U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib.[22][23][24] The allegation was denied by Nelson.[22][25] Nasser Beydoun subsequently also alleged that former Michigan Democratic Party chair Lon Johnson had approached him with an identical offer to drop out of the Senate race and primary Tlaib. Johnson denied the claims, saying, "that's just crazy. I didn't offer him $20 million, or any other amount of money, to run against Rashida. That's insane."[26] Beydoun was later disqualified from the ballot.[27]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Hill Harper

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Elissa Slotkin

Statewide elected officials

U.S. representatives

State cabinet officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Nasser Beydoun (disqualified)

Organizations

Pamela Pugh (withdrawn)

Local officials

Declined to endorse

Presidents

U.S. senators

Labor unions

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nasser Beydoun (D)[b] $855,335 $678,582 $148,721
Hill Harper (D) $2,037,766[c] $1,596,454 $441,312
Leslie Love (D)[d] $23,395 $17,017 $17,017
Pamela Pugh (D)[d] $90,638 $81,363 $9,275
Elissa Slotkin (D) $16,094,088 $7,473,267 $8,620,820
Source: Federal Election Commission[93]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Nasser
Beydoun 		Hill
Harper 		Leslie
Love 		Elissa
Slotkin 		Other Undecided
Mitchell Research[94][A] June 3, 2024 268 (LV) ± 6.0% 1% 8% – 53% – 38%
Mitchell Research[95][A] March 15–16, 2024 260 (LV) – 3% 11% – 59% – 27%
Target Insyght[96][B] January 4–10, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 0% 7% 2% 65% 26%[f]
Public Policy Polling (D)[97][C] December 28–29, 2023 549 (LV) – 2% 12% 3% 50% – 34%
– 14% – 56% – 31%
Emerson College[99] August 1–2, 2023 551 (RV) ± 4.1% 2% 8% 2% 34% 29%[g] 25%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Slotkin
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
Democratic primary results[100]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Elissa Slotkin 712,791 76.33%
Democratic Hill Harper 221,053 23.67%
Total votes 933,844 100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Amash, Pensler and Rogers were certified to be on the Republican primary ballot at the end of May.[121]

Residency controversy

[edit]

Even though Rogers is a former Michigan congressman, he owns a home in Cape Coral, Florida, and was registered to vote in Florida in 2022.[122] He has since purchased a home in White Lake Township, living outside Brighton while that home is remodeled. He also changed his voting registration back to Michigan.[123] His Florida residency became the subject of negative ads against him.[124][125][126] New controversy arose regarding the completion of Rogers's new home.[127]

Endorsements

[edit]
Justin Amash

U.S. senators

Newspapers and other media

Organizations

Sherry O'Donnell

Executive office officials

State legislators

Individuals

Mike Rogers

Executive branch officials

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Local officials

Labor unions

  • Police Officers Association of Michigan[142]

Organizations

Sandy Pensler (withdrawn)

Individuals

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Justin Amash (R) $662,743 $633,56 $400,706
Sherry O'Donnell (R) $422,182 $376,550 $46,517
Mike Rogers (R) $5,005,548 $2,489,477 $2,516,070
James Craig (R)[d] $136,670 $136,670 $0
Michael Hoover (R)[d] $236,591 $234,931 $1,660
Peter Meijer (R)[d] $1,083,664 $985,747 $97,916
Sandy Pensler (R)[d] $4,959,782 $3,894,186 $1,065,595
Sharon Savage (R)[d] $100,130 $50,956 $49,174
Alexandria Taylor (R)[d] $26,120 $26,120 $0
J. D. Wilson (R)[d] $8,086 $6,438 $1,647
Source: Federal Election Commission[93]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Justin
Amash 		James
Craig 		Peter
Meijer 		Sherry
O'Donnell 		Sandy
Pensler 		Mike
Rogers 		Other Undecided
July 20, 2024 Pensler withdraws from the race
Tarrance Group[146][D] July 8–10, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 14% – – 5% 14% 52% – 16%
Mitchell Research[94][A] June 3, 2024 266 (LV) ± 6.0% 8% – – 0% 3% 28% – 61%
Public Policy Polling (D)[147][C] May 22–23, 2024 486 (LV) – 11% – – 3% 12% 30% 3%[j] 41%
Emerson College[148] April 30 – May 1, 2024 545 (LV) ± 4.1% 8% – – 2% 3% 32% – 54%
April 26, 2024 Meijer withdraws from the race
Mitchell Research[95][A] March 15–16, 2024 288 (LV) – 6% – 7% – 1% 27% – 59%
Market Resource Group (R)[149] February 19–22, 2024 600 (LV) – – – 7% – 2% 23% 6%[k] 62%
February 13, 2024 Craig withdraws from the race
Target Insyght[150][B] January 4–10, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 33% 11% 1% 2% 20% 1%[l] 33%
Public Policy Polling (D)[151] October 9–10, 2023 430 (LV) ± 4.7% – 30% – – – 19% – 51%
Emerson College[99] August 1–2, 2023 477 (RV) ± 4.4% – – 9% – – 12% 50%[m] 29%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Rogers
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[100]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Rogers 555,766 63.19%
Republican Justin Amash 137,565 15.64%
Republican Sherry O'Donnell 106,466 12.10%
Republican Sandy Pensler (withdrawn) 79,772 9.07%
Total votes 879,569 100.0%

Third-party candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Doug Dern (Natural Law), chair of the Natural Law Party and perennial candidate[152]
  • Douglas Marsh (Green), newspaper journalist[152]
  • Joseph Solis-Mullen (Libertarian), college professor[152]
  • Dave Stein (U.S. Taxpayers), blue collar worker[152]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[153] Tossup October 8, 2024
Inside Elections[9] Tilt D September 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[154] Lean D September 25, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[155] Lean D October 9, 2024
Elections Daily[156] Lean D October 9, 2024
CNalysis[157] Lean D October 9, 2024
RealClearPolitics[158] Tossup October 9, 2024
Split Ticket[159] Lean D October 23, 2024
538[160] Likely D October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Mike Rogers (R)

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide elected officials

Mayors

Organizations

Elissa Slotkin (D)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Debates

[edit]
2024 Michigan U.S. Senate election debate
No. Date Host Moderators Link Democratic Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Slotkin Rogers
1 October 8, 2024 WOOD-TV Rick Albin [173] P P
2 October 14, 2024 WXYZ-TV Carolyn Clifford
Alicia Smith
Chuck Stokes 		[174] P P

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Elissa
Slotkin (D) 		Mike
Rogers (R) 		Undecided
[n] 		Margin
RealClearPolitics[175] October 24 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.4% 46.1% 5.5% Slotkin +2.3%
538[176] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.7% 45.1% 6.2% Slotkin +3.6%
270toWin[177] October 23 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.6% 44.5% 6.9% Slotkin +4.1%
TheHill/DDHQ[178] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 49.1% 46.3% 4.6% Slotkin +2.8%
Average 48.7% 45.5% 5.8% Slotkin +3.2%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Elissa
Slotkin (D) 		Mike
Rogers (R) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel[179] November 3–4, 2024 1,113 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 48% 3%[o] 1%
Research Co.[180] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 50% 44% 2%[p] 4%
Patriot Polling (R)[181] November 1–3, 2024 858 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 49% – 1%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[182] November 1–3, 2024 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 47% – 5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[183] November 1–2, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 48% 2% 2%
AtlasIntel[184] November 1–2, 2024 1,198 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 3%[o] 1%
Emerson College[185][E] October 30 – November 2, 2024 790 (LV) ± 3.4% 49% 45% – 6%
Mitchell Research[186][F] October 29 – November 2, 2024 585 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 48% – 4%
48% 46% 1%[q] 2%
New York Times/Siena College[187] October 29 – November 2, 2024 998 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 46% – 6%
998 (RV) ± 3.5% 45% 45% – 9%
Mainstreet Research/FAU[188] October 25 – November 2, 2024 713 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 43% 1%[r] 9%
733 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 42% 2%[s] 10%
Morning Consult[189] October 23 – November 1, 2024 1,112 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 41% – 10%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[190] October 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) – 47% 46% – 7%
YouGov[191][G] October 25–31, 2024 940 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 42% – 7%
985 (RV) 51% 41% – 8%
ActiVote[192] October 12–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 49% – –
Marist College[193] October 27–30, 2024 1,214 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 46% 1%[t] 1%
1,356 (RV) ± 3.3 51% 47% 1%[t] 1%
AtlasIntel[194] October 27–30, 2024 1,136 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 46% 3%[o] 1%
Echleon Insights[195] October 27–30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 46% 5%[u] 1%
Mitchell Research[196][F] October 28–29, 2024 – (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 49% – 10%
Tarrance Group (R)[197][H] October 26–29, 2024 620 (LV) ± 4.1% 48% 50% – 2%
AtlasIntel[198] October 25–29, 2024 983 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 3%[o] 1%
EPIC-MRA[199][I] October 24–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% 7%[v] 3%
The Washington Post[200] October 24–28, 2024 1,003 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 45% – 7%
1,003 (RV) ± 3.7% 46% 45% – 9%
Fox News[201] October 24–28, 2024 988 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 47% – 2%
1,275 (RV) ± 2.5% 51% 46% – 2%
CNN/SSRS[202] October 23–28, 2024 726 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 42% 9%[w] 1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[203] October 26–27, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 48% 1%[r] 3%
Emerson College[204][J] October 25–27, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% – 6%
Suffolk University[205][K] October 24–27, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 45% 5%[x] 3%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[206] October 23–27, 2024 400 (LV) ±  4.9% 48% 47% 1%[y] 4%
Patriot Polling (R)[207] October 24–26, 2024 796 (RV) – 51% 48% – –
Glengariff Group[208][L] October 22–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% 5%[z] 7%
UMass Lowell/YouGov[209] October 16–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.49% 48% 39% 5%[aa] 8%
Quinnipiac University[210] October 17–21, 2024 1,136 (LV) ± 2.9% 52% 44% 2%[ab] 2%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[211] October 18–20, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% – 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[212][M] October 16–18, 2024 1,008 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 38% 7%[ac] 10%
AtlasIntel[213] October 12–17, 2024 1,529 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 2%[ad] 2%
The Bullfinch Group[214] October 11–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% – 7%
RMG Research[215][N] October 10–16, 2024 789 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 43% 4%[ae] 5%
49%[af] 45% 1%[ag] 4%
Morning Consult[189] October 6–15, 2024 496 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% – 11%
Mitchell Research[216][A] October 14, 2024 589 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 43% – 10%
45% 40% 4%[ai] 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[217][M] October 12–14, 2024 682 (LV) ± 3.4% 44% 40% 6%[aj] 10%
SoCal Strategies (R)[218] October 11–13, 2024 692 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 45% – 7%
Marketing Resource Group (R)[219] October 7–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 7%[ak] 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[220] October 8–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 45% 2% 7%
Emerson College[221][E] October 5–8, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 44% – 8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[222][O] 		October 2–8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 46% 1%[al] 4%
Research Co.[223] October 5–7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 46% 41% 1%[am] 12%
Quinnipiac University[224] October 3–7, 2024 1,007 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 48% 2%[an] 1%
Glengariff Group[225][L] October 1–4, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 43% 5%[ao] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[226][M] September 27 – October 2, 2024 839 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 39% 6%[ap] 10%
Mitchell Research[227][A] September 30, 2024 709 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 44% – 7%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[228] September 28–30, 2024 1,086 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 47% – 6%
RMG Research[229][N] September 24–27, 2024 789 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 43% 2%[aq] 3%
New York Times/Siena College[230] September 21–26, 2024 688 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 42% – 12%
688 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 40% – 16%
AtlasIntel[231] September 20–25, 2024 918 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 49% 1%[ar] 6%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[232][P] September 19–25, 2024 416 (LV) – 47% 44% 3%[as] 5%
50% 46% – 4%
Remington Research Group (R)[233][Q] September 16–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 43% – 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[234][M] September 16–19, 2024 993 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 37% 4%[at] 12%
Suffolk University[235][K] September 16–19, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 43% 2%[au] 10%
UMass/YouGov[236] September 11–19, 2024 650 (LV) ± 4.37% 47% 34% 3%[av] 15%
Emerson College[237][E] September 15–18, 2024 875 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 42% – 11%
Tarrance Group (R)[238][H] September 14–18, 2024 607 (LV) ± 4.1% 49% 47% – 4%
Morning Consult[189] September 9–18, 2024 1,297 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 37% – 12%
Marist College[239] September 12–17, 2024 1,282 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 45% – 3%
1,138 (LV) ± 3.4% 52% 45% – 2%
Quinnipiac University[240] September 12–16, 2024 905 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 46% 1%[y] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[241][M] September 6–9, 2024 556 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 39% 4%[aw] 14%
Morning Consult[189] August 30 – September 8, 2024 1,368 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% – 11%
co/efficient (R)[242][R] September 4–6, 2024 931 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 38% – 23%
CBS News/YouGov[243] September 3–6, 2024 1,073 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 41% 2%[aq] 9%
ActiVote[244] August 6 – September 5, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 47% – –
YouGov[245][G] August 23 – September 3, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 39% – 11%
Cygnal (R)[246] August 28 – September 1, 2024 600 (LV) – 44% 43% – 13%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[247] August 28–30, 2024 1,089 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 45% – 5%
Glengariff Group[248][L] August 26–29, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 35% 6%[ax] 15%
CNN/SRSS[249] August 23–29, 2024 708 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 41% 11%[ay] 1%
Emerson College[250][E] August 25–28, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 47% 41% – 12%
EPIC-MRA[251][I] August 23–26, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% – 12%
TIPP Insights (R)[252][S] August 20–22, 2024 1,001 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 35% 5% 13%
741 (LV) 49% 39% 4% 8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)[253][T] August 19–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 43% – 14%
The Bullfinch Group[254][U] August 8–11, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 48% 38% – 15%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[255][O] 		August 7–11, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 44% – 8%
New York Times/Siena College[256] August 5–8, 2024 619 (RV) ± 4.5% 42% 41% – 16%
619 (LV) ± 4.8% 46% 43% – 11%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[257][P] July 26 – August 2, 2024 406 (LV) – 50% 42% – 8%
August 6, 2024 Primary elections held
Glengariff Group[258][L] July 22–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% – 13%
Fox News[259] July 22–24, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 46% 1%[ag] 3%
Emerson College[260][V] July 22–23, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 41% – 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[261][W] July 17–18, 2024 650 (RV) ± 3.9% 46% 38% – 17%
EPIC-MRA[262][I] July 13–17, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 40% – 17%
Public Policy Polling (D)[263][X] July 11–12, 2024 568 (RV) – 45% 35% – 20%
YouGov[264][G] July 4–12, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 39% 2% 12%
852 (LV) – 49% 40% 2% 12%
Expedition Strategies[265][Y] June 24 – July 8, 2024 275 (LV) – 46% 40% – 14%
Remington Research Group (R)[266][Q] June 29 – July 1, 2024 584 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 43% – 10%
EPIC-MRA[267] June 21–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% – 14%
Emerson College[268][E] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 39% – 18%
Mitchell Research[269][A] June 3, 2024 697 (LV) ± 3.7% 36% 33% – 31%
Mainstreet Research/FAU[270] May 30–31, 2024 723 (RV) ± 3.6% 41% 41% 4%[az] 14%
636 (LV) ± 3.6% 43% 42% 3%[ba] 12%
Mitchell Research[271][A] May 20–21, 2024 697 (LV) ± 3.7% 40% 36% – 24%
KAConsulting (R)[272][Z] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) – 43% 37% – 20%
Glengariff Group[273][AA] April 24–25, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 37% – 23%
Emerson College[274][E] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 40% – 19%
Emerson College[275][E] March 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 39% – 20%
Mitchell Research[95][A] March 15–16, 2024 627 (LV) – 37% 37% – 26%
EPIC-MRA[276] February 13–18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 38% – 23%
Glengariff Group[277][L] January 2–6, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 37% – 25%
EPIC-MRA[278] November 10–16, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 37% – 24%
EPIC-MRA[279] August 6–11, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 37% – 21%
Emerson College[99] August 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 44% 38% – 18%
Mitchell Research[280][A] July 11–13, 2023 639 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 38% – 17%
Hypothetical polling

Nasser Beydoun vs. Mike Rogers

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Nasser
Beydoun (D) 		Mike
Rogers (R) 		Undecided
Glengariff Group[273][AA] April 24–25, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 36% 39% 25%

Hill Harper vs. Mike Rogers

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Hill
Harper (D) 		Mike
Rogers (R) 		Undecided
Glengariff Group[273][AA] April 24–25, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 36% 38% 26%

Elissa Slotkin vs. Justin Amash

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Elissa
Slotkin (D) 		Justin
Amash (R) 		Undecided
Glengariff Group[273][AA] April 24–25, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 34% 25%
Emerson College[275][E] March 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 35% 22%

Elissa Slotkin vs. James Craig

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Elissa
Slotkin (D) 		James
Craig (R) 		Undecided
Glengariff Group[277][L] January 2–6, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 38% 27%
EPIC-MRA[278] November 10–16, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 38% 22%
Emerson College[99] August 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 38% 17%
EPIC-MRA[281] June 8–14, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 39% 21%

Elissa Slotkin vs. Peter Meijer

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Elissa
Slotkin (D) 		Peter
Meijer (R) 		Undecided
Glengariff Group[273][AA] April 24–25, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 34% 25%
Emerson College[275][E] March 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 34% 24%
Glengariff Group[277][L] January 2–6, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 36% 28%
Emerson College[99] August 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 42% 36% 22%
Mitchell Research[280][A] July 11–13, 2023 639 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 28% 31%

Elissa Slotkin vs. Sandy Pensler

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Elissa
Slotkin (D) 		Sandy
Pensler (R) 		Undecided
Glengariff Group[273][AA] April 24–25, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 34% 26%
Emerson College[275][E] March 14–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 37% 21%

Elissa Slotkin vs. Nikki Snyder

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Elissa
Slotkin (D) 		Nikki
Snyder (R) 		Undecided
Emerson College[99] August 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 44% 36% 20%

Elissa Slotkin vs. John Tuttle

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Elissa
Slotkin (D) 		John
Tuttle (R) 		Undecided
Emerson College[99] August 1–2, 2023 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 35% 20%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in Michigan[282]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Elissa Slotkin 2,712,686 48.64% −3.62%
Republican Mike Rogers 2,693,680 48.30% +2.54%
Libertarian Joseph Solis-Mullen 56,697 1.02% N/A
Green Douglas Marsh 53,978 0.97% +0.02%
Constitution Dave Stein 41,363 0.74% +0.09%
Natural Law Doug Dern 18,779 0.34% −0.05%
Total votes 5,577,183 100.0%
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Slotkin won seven of 13 congressional districts, including her own district, which elected a Republican to replace her.[283]

District Slotkin Rogers Representative
1st 38% 58% Jack Bergman
2nd 34% 62% John Moolenaar
3rd 52% 45% Hillary Scholten
4th 45% 51% Bill Huizenga
5th 36% 61% Tim Walberg
6th 60% 36% Debbie Dingell
7th 49% 48% Elissa Slotkin (118th Congress)
Tom Barrett (119th Congress)
8th 49% 48% Dan Kildee (118th Congress)
Kristen McDonald Rivet (119th Congress)
9th 34% 62% Lisa McClain
10th 47% 50% John James
11th 57% 40% Haley Stevens
12th 67% 27% Rashida Tlaib
13th 70% 26% Shri Thanedar

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Michigan Professional Union and Local 412
  2. ^ Disqualified candidate
  3. ^ $462,916 of this total was self-funded by Harper
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i Withdrawn candidate
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. ^ "Other candidates & undecided" with 26%
  7. ^ Zack Burns and Jacquise Purifoy with 3%; Pamela Pugh with 1%; "Someone Else" with 22%
  8. ^ Numbered as the 10th from 2021 to 2023
  9. ^ Numbered as the 4th from 2015–2023
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 6%
  12. ^ Michael Hoover with 1%; Sherry O'Donnell, Bensson Samuel, Sharon Savage, Alexandria Taylor, and J. D. Wilson with 0%
  13. ^ Nikki Snyder with 6%; Michael Hoover with 3%; Ezra Scott, Alexandria Taylor, and John Tuttle with 1%; "Other" with 39%
  14. ^ Calculated by taking the dƒifference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  15. ^ a b c d "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  16. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  17. ^ Solis-Mullen (L) with 1%
  18. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 1%
  19. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  20. ^ a b "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  21. ^ Dern (NL), Marsh (G), and Stein (UST) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%; "I did not vote for this office" with 1%
  22. ^ "Third party candidate" with 6%; "Did not or would not vote" with 1%
  23. ^ "Other" with 7%; "Neither" with 2%
  24. ^ "Refused" with 2%; Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Stein (UST) with 1%; Dern (NL) with <1%
  25. ^ a b "Refused" with 1%
  26. ^ Solis-Mullen (L) with 2%
  27. ^ "Another Candidate" with 2%; Solis-Mullen (L), Stein (C), and "Did Note Vote for Senator" with 1%
  28. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  29. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Dern (NL), Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Stein (UST) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  30. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  31. ^ "Some other candidate" and "Would not vote" with 2% each
  32. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  33. ^ a b "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  34. ^ Not appearing on ballot
  35. ^ Frizzell (I),[ah] Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L) & Stein (T) with 1%; Dern (NL) with 0%
  36. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%, Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Stein (UST) with 1%
  37. ^ Solis-Mullen (L) with 3%; Dern (NL), Marsh (G), and Stein (UST) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  38. ^ "Other" with 1%
  39. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  40. ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  41. ^ Solis-Mullen (L) with 2%; Marsh (G) with 1%; Stein (C) with 1%; Dern (NLP) with 1%
  42. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Marsh (G) with 1%; Solis-Mullen (L) with 1%; Stein (C) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  43. ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
  44. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  45. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  46. ^ Marsh (G) with 2%; "Won't vote" with 2%
  47. ^ Marsh (G) and Solis-Mullen (L) with 1%; Stein (UST) and Dern (NL) with <1%
  48. ^ Marsh (G), Solis-Mullen (L), and Dern (NL) with 1%
  49. ^ Solis-Mullen (L), Marsh (G), Stein (C), and Dern (NLP) with 1%
  50. ^ Solis-Mullen (L) with 3%; Marsh (G) with 2%; Stein (C) with 1%; Dern (NLP) with 0%
  51. ^ "Other" with 7%; "Neither" with 4%
  52. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  53. ^ "Another candidate" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Poll sponsored by the Michigan Information and Research Service
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Michigan Information and Research Service and the Northern Michigan Chamber Alliance
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Voter Protection Project, who have not publicly endorsed any candidate; however, they sent out a press release that describes Elissa Slotkin as "the strongest candidate" in the race.[98]
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Rogers's campaign
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Poll sponsored by The Hill
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Michigan News Source
  7. ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  8. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Rogers' campaign
  9. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Detroit Free Press
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  11. ^ a b Poll sponsored by USA Today
  12. ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV
  13. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  14. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Napolitan News
  15. ^ a b Poll sponsored by AARP
  16. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  17. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans
  18. ^ Poll sponsored by Americans for IVF
  19. ^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  20. ^ Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  21. ^ Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
  22. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  23. ^ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats
  24. ^ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party
  25. ^ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  26. ^ Poll sponsored by Vapor Technology Association
  27. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by the Detroit Regional Chamber

References

[edit]
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[edit]

Official campaign websites

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